Este trabajo ilustra no sólo una innovadora forma de estudiar el efecto látigo, o una forma distinta de modelar las cadenas de suministro usando los principios. Se debe a un desajuste en la cadena de suministro entre las Relación entre precio-demanda pueden incrementar o mitigar el efecto látigo. Efecto Latigo Solución CPFR Planeación agregada. Es la sincronización de la estrategia de la cadena de suministro y de competitiva. Causas.

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Given the time delay and the time horizon, he produces oscillations in purchase orders, and consequently oscillations in inventories even when the safety stock is constant. Determining the Vector of Change. When a production shortage happens, they use past sales as a guide to assign available products to fulfil demand orders from RDCs.

Even though the bullwhip effect has decreased we cannot declare it to be solved. The study of supply chain dynamics is about companies operating manufacturing supply chains of multiple echelons subject to limited production and distribution capacities.

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Under this scenario we have reduced the delivery time from suppliers to one week. Due to a shortage of raw material, it is not possible to produce the full requirement coming from the production manager. At this time the input variable is reproduced exactly. The model can also be used to analyze the congruency of decision makers with respect the information systems. It can happen that a low forecast causes lost sales resulting in a difference between sales and ‘real’ demand.

We produced that forecast for 4 or 5 months directly, creating the forecast from our sales estimations based on the “last month sales” and we multiplied it by a factor month by month In principle, the forecast is produced by operational managers using econometric standards, and the sales managers are responsible of fine tune it with expected demand volumes per zone and by product.

Everything goes together with sales I believe that we never follow them This warehouse capacity not only represents a fixed asset cost but also an inventory cost due to the financial investment.


In effect, during the following efetco, new demand for 15, units is served eefecto 17, units of stock are received, reaching a final inventory latgio 8, units. As we have said, the purchase policy rule for raw materials implies dramatic amounts of amplification, phase lag and oscillation in the purchase orders.

European Journal of Operational Research, 3, pp.

Daniela Pertuz

The time step unit is weeks and all order quantities are in finished goods equivalent units. Demand is clearly seasonal during the year, with peaks during the summer between weeks 15 and An optimal policy cavena manage an equilibrium point where the variation of order quantities will be economical and equivalent to variations in inventories.

A Supply Chain Diagnostic Methodology: The following is an extract from the interviews with the purchase manager: For this strategy it is central to keep the continuous expansion of its product portfolio.

Figure 12 shows the impact of this new policy. Sugar price varies according to market. They have more thansales points. We make explicit the use of information flows and their sources.

The model’s validity is based on the consensus and acceptance from the managers rather than in the statistical proves. If we analyze the inventories graph, figure 8we can observe that high inventories are held, and therefore a cost of inventories derived from the heuristic policies from the supply chain managers. We would like to thank the anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions that have allowed us to improve the exposition of this research. The number of elements of InTransit should be set equal to the number of time steps in a DelayTime period, i.

Because of this new forecast system oatigo decides to reduce the coverage from 1 cadeha to 0. Therefore, the model shows that given the heuristic policies from the supply chain managers during the yearno shortage to customers was experienced. Industrial Dynamics Modelling of Supply Chains. Variables are represented with circles, and constants with diamonds.


Every year they select a small set of suppliers from a pool caedna possible vendors.

The decision making happens at the beginning of every week, when managers look at suministrp information systems and decide how much to order upstream. In the context of the supply chain dynamics problem, Forresterand Sterman, have explored the impact of time delays. In Mexico most of the producers are state owned.

… more than classic ‘beer game’.

Modelling lx In our case study we work with the main bottler of PepsiCo Beverages International in Mexico: We should expect that a better purchase policy exists in order to minimize order and raw material inventories.

Rectangles represent stock positions of raw materials, WIP and finished goods. Therefore, the assumption of demand to test the model is meaningful to provide an interpretation. The amplitude and frequency of these oscillations are uncorrelated with market oscillations. This delay may be modelled using a number of levels that equal the number of time steps in the delay time, i.

They recognise that their main business is distribution since advertising depends on PepsiCo Headquarters. In their business, product presence at sales point is translated into sales. But during that same week, the purchase manager receives more than 80, units due to a purchase order launched during the middle of the summer. Also, in figure 8since the stocks have a noisy initial value we can see that it takes around 10 weeks to dissipate, and then the ‘real’ behaviour of the system appears.

In each time step, material is moved from one level to the next, until it reaches the final level, where it is output.